Melbourne Auction Results – July 6th

Although we are heading into winter Melbourne’s auction clearance rates have been trending downwards for the past four weeks, this despite falling listing numbers.

A clearance rate of 77 per cent was recorded this weekend compared to 79 per cent last weekend and 71 per cent this weekend last year. There were 508 auctions reported to the REIV this weekend, with 392 selling and 116 being passed in, 50 of those on a vendor bid. There were around 2,300 auction sales in June 2015 compared to 2,100 over the same period last year.

The suburbs with the highest number of auction sales for the month were Balwyn North (39 sales), Reservoir (38 sales) and Glen Waverley (37 sales). Although we are heading into winter Melbourne’s auction clearance rates have been trending downwards for the past four weeks, this despite falling listing numbers. According to APM Melbourne’s auction median price of $780,000 over June this year is 10% higher than the $705,000 median price of June 2014.

On Tuesday the Reserve bank meet to deliberate on what to do with interest rates. Economists expect the RBA to continue its wait and see approach and leave rates on hold at 2% as it ponders the effect of a falling Ausssie dollar and a slowing Chinese economy.

Source: news.domain.com.au

Dark Clouds On The Horizon

As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago Greece chose to miss the deadline of June 30 to pay their required $1.5 billion dollar repayment to the International Monetary Fund, technically that means that they have defaulted on their loan. The consequences? Well by the time this email hits your Inbox we will know whether Greece has decided to accept or reject new bailout terms proposed by the European Commission, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, which called for pension cuts, a GST increase and other austerity measures. We’ll see that brave Prime Minister Tsipras has, in his wisdom, decided to call for a referendum and let the people vote on the fate of the country instead of governing his way out of a crisis, disappointing in my view.

The options for Greece are to either stay in the Eurozone and take on the austerity measures required or revert to the Drachma which, after devaluation, will be close to worthless. Greece, which is a major importer of goods will be worse off, the other alternative is to side with Puten’s Russia and take on the Ruble, god forbid!

Despite all of the commotion overseas there haven’t been any major economic shocks in local and global markets, although share markets have continued their volatility and lost some ground, 1% on Friday. I myself decided to dump all my shares last Thursday because of all the instability. On top of the upheaval in Greece there was a major correction in the Chinese stock market. Shanghai’s benchmark index has lost round 30 per cebt from its June 12 peak, wiping out at least $3.7 trillion from the value of Chrinese stocks, which surged more than 150 per cent before this latest correction.

The economic outlook for Australia in the next 12 months ain’t so good. Growth is expected to remain subdued with property the only shining light. Without getting political here, it’s time for the Federal government to stop worrying about their surplus budget and focus on creating employment for all Australians, through spending on public projects, like our much needed infrastructure and seriously look at plans to make Australia the food bowl of Asia. We have the land, the water and the technology to have some of the largest cattle and wheat farms on the planet, all we need is some vision and “balls” from our government.

Konstantinos Venetis of Lombard Street Research says, “Tony Abbott is the perfect example of a prime minister content to rely on past momentum, even as the costs of inaction mount. His policies have been devoid of any ideas to increase innovation and productivity and create jobs outside the natural resources sector.”

Why the negative talk? Because some economists are predicting a recession next year. This means negative growth for two consecutive quarters and, for those 20 or 30 year olds who have never seen one first hand, this could come as a real shock. It’s likely that these millennials will suffer the most should there be a downturn as they have never experienced one and won’t know what to expect.

The current uncertainty in the share market could see investors head for the typical safe haven of the housing sector as they have in the past. The difference I see this time is more investment through investment vehicles like Self Managed Super Funds with their buying power to leverage into the property market at will.

Most experts are predicting that the Melbourne and Sydney markets will keep on their current trajectory for at least another year. Current low interest rates and negative gearing make property a “safe bet” for the time being anyway.

On The Street

The current state of the economic and heated property market make asset selection and purchase a critical process. Yet again, this week we saw another example of where a property we were interested in sold for more than $50,000 above our estimated price range.

To say that we were too conservative on price or don’t know the area very well isn’t quite the case. This particular unit was quoted at $500- $550,000 and based on recent sales in the same complex, only 2 weeks earlier, was expected to sell between $500- $580,000, maybe a touch more.

When I got the call from the real estate agent inviting me to a boardroom auction only 3 days prior to the actual auction day i scoffed and said “ tell me, is there another buyer’s advocate involved”. It seems to me as stock levels begin to tighten up in winter, desperation to secure a property at any price also kicks in.

We walked away from the negotiation at my advice and discovered the bidding between the two parties who attended finished at a whopping $616,000. Let’s hope the new owner doesn’t need to sell too soon and the market keeps growing at its current rate!

“You only realise how well you bought when you have to sell the property.”

Top 5 Houses

1. 675 Moorooduc Highway, Moorooduc $3,352,000
2. 17 Elmhurst Road, Blackburn $3,010,000
3. 10 Landen Avenue, Balwyn North $2,688,888
4. 9 Malua Street, Ormond $2,618,500
5. 42 Bell Street, Fitzroy $2,385,000

Top 5 Bargain Houses

1. 10 Plantation Avenue, Frankston North $270,000
2. 4/41 Leonard Avenue, Noble Park $281,000
3. 2 Benalla Street, Dallas $317,000
4. 32 Warringa Crescent, Hoppers Crossing $350,000
5. 25 Billingham Road, Deer Park $363,500

Top 5 Apartments

1. 302/2 Pier Street, Port Melbourne $2,525,000
2. 3/15 Parring Road, Balwyn $1,410,000
3. 9B Hillside Avenue, Bentleigh $1,320,000
4. 14 Davies Street, Port Melbourne $1,250,000
5. 19A Clements Street, Bentleigh East $1,200,000

Top 5 Bargain Apartments

1. 206/44 Barkly Street, St Kilda $135,000
2. 205/44 Barkly Street, St Kilda $135,000
3. 30/31 Smith Street, St Kilda $135,000
4. 9/31 Smith Street, St Kilda $135,000
5. 305/44 Barkly Street, St Kilda $140,000

Source: REIV